Take Wars
You are an independent analyst covering the free ad-supported streaming television industry. You have opinions. Some of them are correct. You have 52 weeks to turn those opinions into enough cash to ascend — or to be quietly forgotten by a circuit that has already moved on.
The game tracks four primary stats:
The economy
You start with no debt. Debt enters the game when you travel to conferences (travel costs cash, half of which is added to debt) and when you accept retainers. The question is not whether you will accumulate debt — it is whether you can generate enough cash to stay ahead of it.
The core loop is simple: buy commodities cheap at venues where they are undervalued, sell them expensive at venues where they are sought after. I Called This temporarily inflates sell prices. Self-promotion actions — Substack, LinkedIn, Podcast — advance a week without the full debt-compounding cost of travel, building buffs at your current venue.
Debt rate: The interest rate is set by your chosen difficulty (5–8% per travel) and displayed beneath the debt figure in the status bar. Each sponsor renegotiation raises the rate by a further 1% — the sponsor's new CMO is more aggressive on attribution. Watch this number. A run that starts at 6%/travel can escalate to 9% if you renegotiate twice.
Survival floor: Quiet weeks — weeks where no event fires — earn a small passive income from local hustle ($150 below $500 cash, $80 below $1,000). This is not a growth engine. It is a floor. If you are at $38 with nothing to sell, quiet weeks keep you breathing. The event system also biases toward recovery events when you are cash-poor: below $300, the engine is working in your favour.
Week advancement
| Action | Week | Debt | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travel | +1 | Compounds at full rate | Changes venue, re-rolls all prices |
| Publish to Substack | +1 | None | Cold Takes +20%, Prophecies +10%, Overexposure −1, 3-market cooldown |
| Post to LinkedIn | +1 | None | Visibility +1, Hot Takes +10%, 2-market cooldown |
| Record an Episode | +1 | None | Charts & Terms +15% next market |
| Issue Press Release | +1 | Shortfall added if cash insufficient | $800 cost (can run on partial cash + debt), Prophecies +20%, Cold Takes +15% |
Venues & the circuit
The conference circuit is tiered. You unlock higher tiers as your visibility grows. Start in the micro circuit — free venues, light audiences — and work up to the major circuit, where prices move dramatically and the right commodity at the right moment is worth considerably more.
| Circuit | Unlocks | Venues | Travel cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Micro | Always | Measurement Meetup, LinkedIn Live, Streaming Association, Obscure Summit, Webinar Purgatory, Green Room, Trade Press | $0–$200 |
| Minor | Always | Galaxy Tour | $700 |
| Mid | Visibility 2+ | StreamTV Show, SXSW, Upfronts, Newfronts, MIPCOM, CES | $900–$1,500 |
| Major | Visibility 4+ | Cannes Lions, Invitation-Only Dinner | $400–$2,200 |
The market
Prices shift between venues. Buy commodities where they are cheap, sell where they are valued. The sell price is always lower than the buy price by a base discount — you need commodity pumps, venue bonuses, or I Called This to close that gap profitably.
Sell prices are further reduced by two penalty systems:
Cred-debt discount: Each point of cred-debt reduces your sell prices by 5%. At 10 cred-debt your takes sell at −50%. This is the primary mechanical cost of dark arts use.
Overexposure discount: Overexposure reduces all sell prices up to a maximum of −35% at overexposure 87. The stash shows your current cost-basis vs current sell price so you can see when penalties have flipped a position underwater.
Venue saturation: Each commodity has a sell threshold per market visit. Dump too many Charts at one conference and the market glutts — a popup will tell you the commodity, the penalty percentage, and how many markets until it clears. The saturation is venue-specific. The same Charts may sell at full price at your next stop. Sell across multiple venues rather than unloading everything in one place.
Commodities
| Commodity | Base price | Slots | Saturates at | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot Takes | $120 | 1 | 5 units | Fast-moving. Best at StreamTV, CES, SXSW. Pumped by I Called This. Momentum builds with each sale this market (+5% per unit, cap +25%). Decays with overexposure. |
| Cold Takes | $200 | 1 | 4 units | Contrarian. Pays well at Galaxy Tour, Substack, MIPCOM. Earns a premium when the hot-takes market is running. Buffed by Publish to Substack (+20% for 2 markets). |
| Prophecies | $380 | 1 | 3 units | Medium value, ages slowly. Best at Cannes, Newfronts. Generic prophecies carry no attribution — buy cheap, sell at conferences. Named Prophecies are a separate, accountable system. |
| Charts | $850 | 1 | 3 units | Conference-favourite. Peaks at Upfronts, Cannes, StreamTV. High base value. Data Analyst doubles saturation threshold. |
| Industry Jargon | $1,700 | 1 | 2 units | High-value, multiplicative. Distinct from named Coined Terms. Sells well everywhere if unsaturated. Minting a Coined Term seeds a +15% price bump for 2 markets. |
| Special Reports | $2,400 | 2 | — | Self-published; slow-aged. Takes 2 inventory slots. Sell value peaks after holding for 4–8 markets. Sell too early or too late and you leave money on the table. |
| Advisory Decks | $1,800 | 1 | — | What you pitch to vendors at Cannes. Requires Visibility 3+ (major circuit presence) to trade. Locked below that threshold — it shows as unavailable, not absent. |
| Briefing Notes | $80 | 1 | — | Always available to buy at any venue. High-volume, low-margin — the content factory play. You must buy first; they do not arrive via events. Stack and sell at volume. |
| Off-Record Leaks | $5,500 | 1 | 2 units | Extremely rare (~6% chance per market of appearing). High risk — fact-checks come for these. Do not carry more than one. The source pool cannot absorb volume. |
Named Coined Terms
Separate from the Industry Jargon commodity. When you spin the Coin a Term machine ($1,200), you generate a named term — "Attention Velocity Flywheel," "Content Discovery Friction" — with a rarity multiplier (×1.2 to ×1.8) and an initial traction score.
Traction decays each market: common terms lose 14% per market, rare terms only 8%. Sell price scales with traction: at 80%+ you earn a 25% premium; below 10% you are selling a corpse at −70%. I Called This adds +8% traction to all held terms.
Terms with 40%+ traction may trigger citation events — trade press coverage, competitor appropriation, keynote mentions — each of which spikes traction further.
Backgrounds
Chosen before the game begins. Each shapes your commodity multipliers, starting conditions, and available endings. Pick the one that matches how you intend to play.
+ Leaks +50% at The Substack
+ Travel costs −15% at premium venues
+ First sponsor offer at week 4
+ New Look bonus +40%
+ Charts +20% everywhere
+ Starts with 2 Prophecies in inventory
+ Coined Terms +20%
+ Correction removes 3 cred-debt (not 2)
+ Cold Takes & Prophecies +20%
+ Unlocks The Cape ending
− All dark arts cost double cred
− Hot Takes −20%
+ Coined Terms +50% · Hot Takes +40%
+ Tier I dark arts cost no extra cred
− Cannot achieve The Cape
− Cred threshold −3
+ No starting penalties · Leaderboard 1.0×
− The circuit will not remember your name
− This is, statistically, most people
Difficulty
Selected before backgrounds. Sets your starting cash, debt interest rate, available weeks, and inventory slots. There is no starting debt — debt accumulates through play. The interest rate is what makes higher difficulties punishing.
Self-promotion
The sidebar and action bar provide a range of moves beyond buying and selling. These are your primary tools for building visibility, managing cred-debt, and buffing specific commodity types.
I Called This
+$250 cash. Pumps two commodities at +75% sell price for 2 markets. Cred-debt +1. Overexposure +1. The single most powerful per-market income move if you hold the right inventory. Once per market.
Issue Correction
Reduces cred-debt by 2. Cost starts at $400 and increases by $200 with each use — $600, $800, $1,000. The discourse remembers that you corrected yourself. The PR cost grows. Correct early, when it is cheap. The Steward pays nothing.
New Look
Charts and Coined Terms +25% next market. Visibility +1. Overexposure +4. Cost starts at $300, increases by $150 per use. A rebrand gets more expensive each time you need one.
Stay on Message
$500. Blocks contradiction events for 5 weeks. During this window, I Called This cannot backfire. Use when you have just taken a strong public position you cannot walk back from.
Launch Conference
Three tiers. The Roundtable ($4,000, no weekly cost) is a private dinner — twelve people, off the record. The Summit ($12,000, $800/week) gives you a stage and a programme. The Universe ($25,000, $2,000/week) is a two-day event with your name on the keynote. All commodity multipliers at your own venue scale with the tier. Unlocks once you can afford it.
The name is generated from your background. The Contrarian's Universe. The Analyst's Summit. The conference director will describe it as "the industry's most important conversation."
Retire from Punditry
Available after week 5. Ends the run voluntarily. Two-click confirm — the game asks once, then asks again. Triggers the Retirement ending. Use it when you are ahead and done, or when the run has gone somewhere you do not want to follow.
Managing overexposure
Overexposure is a price penalty on everything you sell, scaling up to −35% at high values. It is raised by I Called This (+1), New Look (+4), repeat venue visits, and various events. The status bar shows your current overexposure and the active penalty percentage. Warnings appear at 20 and 50.
Two recovery mechanisms:
- Travel to The Substack — a recovery venue on the micro circuit. Each visit: Overexposure −5, Cred-debt −1. You cannot travel directly to it from the venue list; it appears in the sidebar as a venue option. The most efficient overexposure reset in the game.
- Publish to Substack (sidebar action) — Overexposure −1 per use, plus Cold Takes and Prophecies buffs. Lighter than traveling there, but compounds if you use it consistently.
Avoid stacking I Called This and New Look when overexposure is above 40. Both add to it. The audience is already starting to screen your calls.
Coined terms
The Coin a Term machine ($1,200 per spin) generates named terms with a rarity multiplier (×1.2 to ×1.8). These are tracked separately from the Industry Jargon commodity and carry individual traction scores.
Traction system
Each named term starts with 60–100% traction depending on rarity. Traction decays per market: common terms lose 14%, strong terms lose 11%, rare terms lose 8%. Sell price scales as follows:
| Traction | Label | Price modifier |
|---|---|---|
| >80% | Hot | +25% |
| 55–80% | Active | Base price |
| 30–55% | Fading | −22% |
| 10–30% | Stale | −45% |
| <10% | Dead | −70% |
Traction events
Terms with 40%+ traction may trigger citation events each market (30% probability, 2-market cooldown): trade press citation (+20% traction, visibility +2), the Profit-Prophet uses it without credit (+15%, no attribution), the Pretender disputes it (+10%, cred-debt +1), or a keynote mention (+25%, visibility +3).
When a term hits 80%+ traction, a vendor may offer $2,400 to associate their brand with it. Accepting sells the term out of your inventory and adds a sponsor. The vendor did not invent the framework — they can simply make sure everyone knows they believe in it.
Dark arts
These mechanics were assembled through systematic analysis of LinkedIn posts, Substack comment threads, and conference panels produced by the FAST industry's active pundit community. The patterns documented here are not hypothetical.
Dark arts accumulate cred-debt. Natural decay reduces cred-debt by 1 for every 4 markets where you abstain — the discourse has a short memory. The ceiling is 25; hitting it ends the run. The skill is not avoiding dark arts but managing the rhythm of use and recovery.
Pundit's Lab
Unlocks at week 20. Combine two dark arts to create a compound move. Each recipe produces a single high-impact outcome. Notable combinations include The Content Machine (AI LinkedIn + LinkedIn Video), The Announced Return (Family Intermission + Humblebrag), and The Discourse Trap (Mirror Accusation + Straw Man).
Research commissions
Unlocks at week 10. A vendor approaches you with an offer to produce "independent" research. Five possible sponsors, each wanting something specific from the paper. Fees range from $3,500 to $5,000.
On acceptance: cash received, cred-debt +2–3 (you know what you are doing), visibility +2. A 4-market risk window opens. Each market carries a 25% chance that someone reads page 12 — the funding disclosure, in six-point type. If it fires, the accountability event triggers: cred-debt +3, visibility −1.
The archetypes
Four recurring figures shape the event landscape. Each has a distinct tone and a distinct threat profile.
The Profit-Prophet
The newsletter that arrives in your inbox three times a week. The takes are bullish, specific, and occasionally accurate. Events: cites your work without credit, endorses your positions when convenient, retracts quietly when not. Amber in the event modal.
The Alchemist
The shapeshifter. Changes position when the market demands it. Has been bullish and bearish on the same metric in the same year. Events move all commodity prices simultaneously. Gold in the event modal.
The Pretender
See below. Purple in the event modal.
The Multiplier
Platform and industry body events that move markets. A venue changes hands. A measurement company rebrands. A conference launches its fourteenth channel. Blue in the event modal.
Accountability
When you sell Prophecies, a record is kept. After 6 markets, there is a 50% chance a journalist's spreadsheet event fires. Three choices:
Issue correction — cred-debt −2, visibility +1. The Steward path. The discourse respects it.
"Directionally correct" — cred-debt +1. The standard move. "The underlying thesis remains sound." Nobody checks. Usually.
No comment — 70% of the time the discourse moves on. 30% they run it with "[Name] declined to comment." Cred-debt +3.
The Pretender
Activates when your visibility reaches 3 and overexposure reaches 12. You have become visible enough to be worth copying. The Pretender enters the circuit.
Every 3–5 markets, there is a 40% chance the Pretender acts. Four possible actions:
Term Appropriation — uses one of your named terms in a keynote without credit. Traction −15%. You can claim it publicly (cred +1, traction +10%), say nothing, or file Opposition Research ($2,500).
Counter-Prophecy — publishes a counter-forecast at the same venue. Both positions circulate. Overexposure +3. The audience chooses based on who sounds more confident.
Panel Displacement — takes your slot. A scheduling optimisation. Visibility −1.
Reputation Attack — a 14-part thread. Parts 1–7 coherent. Parts 8–14 personal. Only fires when your cred-debt is already ≥3. Cred-debt +2.
Opposition Research ($2,500, available in sidebar when Pretender is active) builds the Pretender's cred-debt. At 8+, they announce they are stepping back to focus on what matters. They will return.
Sponsors
Sponsors enter the game through earned events: a newsletter milestone (2,000 subscribers), a podcast offer (after 3 recorded episodes), a named term acquisition, or a specific conference event. You always have the option to decline.
Each sponsor is assigned an archetype with a specific want — Veridian Measurement wants Charts mentions and gives a +15% Charts bonus; Prism Content Intelligence wants coined term adoption and gives a +20% Terms bonus. The bonus is active as long as they are retained.
Every 6 markets (adjusted down with sponsor count), pressure events fire. The sponsor has a note. They would like something. You can comply ($800 bonus), push back (cred-debt −1), or ignore (50% chance they walk and take their bonus with them).
Endings
Winning
General principles
Early game (weeks 1–10): Build visibility on the micro circuit using sidebar actions. Publish to Substack, record episodes, post to LinkedIn. These advance weeks without debt. Once you have 1–2 visibility, the mid-circuit opens. Your first sponsor offer will arrive around this time — evaluate it carefully.
Mid game (weeks 11–30): Conference travel is now viable. The goal is to buy commodities that match your venue's up-list, travel to venues where they are valued, and sell into the pump. I Called This amplifies this on the two highest-value items you hold. Dark arts can accelerate income but require active cred-debt management — go quiet every 4 markets to trigger natural decay.
Late game (weeks 31–52): The Pretender is likely active. Act III events (weeks 45–52) destabilise the market. Your named terms should be approaching peak traction or already sold. The accountability window for early Prophecies is opening. The question is whether you can hold the cred-debt line while closing the gap to your cash target.
By background
Substack Correspondent: Stay on the newsletter cadence. Publish every 3 markets. The Cold Takes and Prophecy bonuses compound well at MIPCOM and the Galaxy Tour. Avoid Hot Takes entirely — the −25% penalty makes them a loss.
Conference Regular: Your Charts bonus at premium venues is the main engine. Target Upfronts, Cannes, StreamTV in rotation. The travel discount makes the major circuit affordable earlier. Accept the week-4 sponsor offer — the Relationship bonus compounds.
Data Analyst: Stack Charts until saturation hits. With the doubled threshold, you can hold 6 Charts without penalty. New Look is your primary visibility tool and costs you 40% less effectively. I Called This is expensive — use it sparingly.
Contrarian: The Cold Takes bonus is large but the saturation ceiling is 7 — buy aggressively. Hot Takes are strictly for selling short, never for holding. The Contrarian pairs well with Issue Correction for cred-debt management, since the penalty per correction ($400 first use) is more manageable than the cred-debt risk of dark arts.
Forecaster: Sell the starting Prophecies immediately for seed capital. The Prophecy bonus and extended saturation threshold make mid-game income stable. Watch the accountability events — 6 markets after your first Prophecy sales, the spreadsheet arrives.
Relationship Guy: Maximise sponsor count. Each sponsor signing bonus is $800 plus their specific commodity bonus. The jargon premium means Coined Terms are your highest-margin item. Leaks and Cold Takes are traps — avoid.
Steward: Never use dark arts. Correction costs nothing. Issue corrections as soon as cred-debt appears to keep it at 0. The Cape ending requires 3 corrections made by week 28 — plan for them, they are your mechanics not your failures. The path is slow but the ending is exclusive.
Maven: Three sponsors from the start means immediate pressure. Use Tier I dark arts freely — they cost no extra cred. The Coined Terms bonus is substantial; pair with the Coin a Term spinner early. Corrections are half-effective, so do not rely on them to manage cred-debt — use natural decay (go quiet) instead.
Generalist: No advantages and no disadvantages. The honest run. Rotate all commodity types and follow the market. The Generalist earns its leaderboard score multiplier honestly.